Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 21.377476 25.722771 30.529616 36.214436 42.725689 49.921985 58.447301
2025-02-23 14.761777 20.357320 27.216280 36.121525 47.246369 60.548609 77.506995
2025-03-02 10.825845 16.691872 24.496069 35.379733 49.875651 68.209855 92.800717
2025-03-09 8.451885 14.371644 22.820901 35.325501 52.863791 76.047317 108.380939
2025-03-16 6.247678 11.740635 20.151940 33.339896 52.763999 79.511854 118.164907
2025-03-23 5.312379 10.838812 19.795457 34.490037 56.962395 88.877022 136.229003
2025-03-30 4.259921 9.493094 18.496731 33.973800 58.557378 94.555171 149.362875
2025-04-06 3.794475 9.088519 18.645021 35.686394 63.559450 105.336744 170.193524
2025-04-13 2.818480 7.467695 16.432036 33.224274 61.771179 105.874520 176.075516
2025-04-20 2.421936 6.935722 16.083087 33.852582 64.918883 113.966038 193.429665
2025-04-27 2.121182 6.540721 15.923982 34.770601 68.566251 122.968019 212.502224
2025-05-04 1.874238 6.210183 15.835255 35.784129 72.408099 132.423226 232.620504
2025-05-11 1.600180 5.783687 15.574723 36.624224 76.329061 142.726866 255.387970
2025-05-18 1.292786 5.177024 14.839667 36.490561 78.578337 150.550029 274.841665
2025-05-25 1.009441 4.526718 13.870866 35.740116 79.598603 156.330214 291.231636
2025-06-01 0.817561 4.079087 13.283349 35.685276 81.868184 164.295343 311.472509
2025-06-08 0.585947 3.374879 11.892011 33.683244 80.188012 165.267695 320.098361
2025-06-15 0.510367 3.221220 11.915139 34.842916 84.794599 177.525633 348.173208
2025-06-22 0.398062 2.851185 11.254758 34.322409 85.951664 183.624508 365.958733
2025-06-29 0.361119 2.803934 11.522739 36.049122 91.844532 198.600480 399.598250
2025-07-06 0.242927 2.264342 10.158871 33.566660 88.686556 196.684454 403.667157
2025-07-13 0.203817 2.123957 10.031594 34.200185 92.236889 207.476822 430.539446
2025-07-20 0.174856 2.023723 10.017190 35.125795 96.483125 219.766190 460.493692